Earthquake house summary—October 2017 by Tony Aldridge.
Recovery continues with 41 rebuilds and 42 repairs currently underway. Ten rebuilds have been completed since July. We are 90% through the expected house demolitions.
Mapping the Damage & Recovery: July 2017
The survey area has now had 381 houses demolished, including the 27 houses that were Red Zoned or forfeited to Council for public works. We still have at least 60 more houses that need to be demolished (at least 26 are known cash-outs for rebuild – see Acknowledgements below).
21 rebuilds were completed the last six months. 43 rebuilds are currently underway with only 6 languishing at the foundation, wall bracing or framing stages.
The Recovery Gap graph shows the continuing demolitions and rebuilds. The progress so far indicates that rebuilding will continue into to the mid 2020’s.
The Recovery Activity graph has the observed rebuilds and repairs underway every three months since 2012. The current rates are well under the highs of 2014 and 2015. However, these are minimum activities as they don’t include minor repairs or the 12 builds currently underway on brand new sections (i.e. what was bare land on 22 Feb., 2011). Another impact on activity is the time to repair or rebuild. Some repairs can be double the time to build a new home, while some rebuilds appear to languish (e.g. three years for both is not unknown, though a current few may take longer).
Repairs reported here are those houses with scaffolding, or signage (e.g. the insurer managed repair). Many of these houses have been previously observed with earthquake damage or temporary repairs (e.g. cracks, plywood, rope, plastic covering, bracing). The Recovery Activity graph does include those being re-repaired and dwellings that were being repaired, but are now demolished.
Looking back over six plus years and our 19 house surveys we can estimate the impact of the earthquakes on all Mt Pleasant dwellings. We have information for 94% of the 1639 dwellings. Of these approximately 1% had practically no damage, 29% were damaged beyond economic repair (i.e. putative rebuilds), leaving 70% dwellings needing earthquake repairs. We are currently 91% through these known repairs and 42% through the known and expected rebuilds.
The rebuild will still take years because of houses yet to be demolished and the building on 125 demolished sites (at least 49 of which have been sold, some several times). The 31 homes already built on brand new sections and those underway do assist the overall Mt Pleasant recovery.
Acknowledgements. Surveying could not happen without the encouragement, support and hospitality of local residents, plus our Community Committee and the Hagley-Ferrymead Community Board. Residents continue to volunteer information plus corrections about their progress, house and land status.
Please update us on any information about homes or sections, especially those appearing in the maps by emailing email@example.com. Thank you
Analysis, mapping and graphics are made possible with the open source software R (R core team, http://www.R-project.org/ ), R packages ggmap, ggplot2 (David Kahle, Hadley Wickham), Google Maps (http://maps.google.co.nz/). Sadly, Microsoft no longer provides 3D pre-earthquake views ( http://www.bing.com/maps/).